Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has asserted that his nation will “defend itself” should Ethiopia proceed with plans to establish a naval base in the breakaway region of Somaliland and potentially recognize it as an independent state.
Despite Somalia’s claim to Somaliland, which has enjoyed effective autonomy since 1991, landlocked Ethiopia entered into a memorandum of understanding on January 1 to lease 20 km (12 miles) of Somaliland’s coastline.
Ethiopia expressed its intent to establish a naval base in exchange for possible recognition of Somaliland, triggering a strong response from Somalia and concerns about further destabilization in the Horn of Africa.
In an interview at the heavily fortified presidential palace in Mogadishu on Tuesday, President Mohamud told Reuters, “If Ethiopia insists, Somalia will resist and will refuse. If they come into the country, Somalia will do everything that it can to defend itself.” However, he did not elaborate on specific actions Somalia might take.
President Mohamud stated that he would only engage in discussions with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed if Ethiopia renounces its intention “to take part of our country.” Ethiopia’s government spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment, with Prime Minister Abiy previously emphasizing that Ethiopia has no plans to initiate a conflict with Somalia and is addressing its need for sea access.
Despite tensions, President Mohamud clarified that he is not contemplating the expulsion of the nearly 3,000 Ethiopian soldiers stationed in Somalia as part of the African Union peacekeeping mission combating al Shabaab militants, an al Qaeda affiliate. Analysts and diplomats express concerns that the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops could further destabilize Somalia, where al Shabaab attacks have claimed numerous lives since 2006.
President Mohamud also highlighted the perceived impact of Ethiopia’s port deal on al Shabaab’s recruitment efforts, claiming that his government’s estimates show the group recruited between 6,000 and 8,000 new fighters in January alone. However, analysts and diplomats interviewed by Reuters expressed skepticism, estimating the number of new recruits in the hundreds.
