The World Bank announced on Monday that it has revised its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa in 2024 to 3% from the previous estimate of 3.4%.
This adjustment primarily results from the ongoing civil war in Sudan, which has severely impacted the country’s economy.
Despite the downgrade, the report indicates that growth will still exceed last year’s figure of 2.4%.
Higher levels of private consumption and investment are expected to contribute positively to the region’s economic recovery.
Andrew Dabalen, chief economist for the Africa region at the World Bank, described this recovery as “basically in slow gear.”
The World Bank’s latest report, titled Africa’s Pulse, also predicts that growth will reach 3.9% in 2025, a slight increase from the earlier forecast of 3.8%.
The report highlights that moderating inflation in several countries could prompt policymakers to lower elevated lending rates.
However, the outlook remains precarious due to serious risks stemming from armed conflicts and climate-related events like droughts and floods.
The report emphasizes that without the conflict in Sudan, regional growth in 2024 could have been half a percentage point higher, aligning with earlier estimates made in April.
According to the report, South Africa’s economy is expected to grow by 1.1% this year and 1.6% in 2025, up from just 0.7% last year.
Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 3.3% this year, rising to 3.6% in 2025. Meanwhile, Kenya, the largest economy in East Africa, is anticipated to expand by 5% this year.
