Chinese lending to Africa fell sharply in 2024, nearly halving to $2.1 billion, marking its first annual decline since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The figures, released by Boston University, signal a strategic shift as Beijing retreats from vast infrastructure ambitions toward smaller, targeted financial engagements.
Once towering symbols of cooperation, billion-dollar railways and highways are giving way to projects designed for commercial viability and measured returns.
Chinese lending now stands at less than a tenth of its 2016 peak, when funding reached a high-water mark of $28.8 billion.
Researchers say the change reflects painful lessons after pandemic-era economic stress pushed Zambia, Ghana and Ethiopia into loan defaults.
The era of grand gestures is fading, replaced by a quieter phase defined by caution, selectivity and evolving financial instruments.
Boston University’s data shows China is pivoting away from dollar-denominated megaprojects toward smaller deals increasingly priced in yuan.
These new arrangements often involve local African banks, small business lending and a growing preference for foreign direct investment.
In Kenya, all Chinese infrastructure loans issued in 2024 were denominated in yuan, underscoring the currency’s rising role.
Kenya also converted $3.5 billion in Chinese loans to yuan last October, while Ethiopia is considering a similar transition.
Across the continent, only six Chinese-funded projects were recorded in 2024, spanning Angola, Kenya, Egypt, Congo and Senegal.
Angola emerged as the largest recipient, securing $1.45 billion for power grids and roads, reflecting Beijing’s focus on strategic partnerships.
Analysts say the pattern reveals more conservative lending paired with market-based tools aimed at reducing debt risk and supporting sustainable growth.
