Egypt has delivered its first military aid to Somalia in over four decades, according to three diplomatic and Somali government sources.
The relationship between Egypt and Somalia has strengthened this year, particularly following Ethiopia’s controversial preliminary agreement with Somaliland. The agreement involves Ethiopia leasing coastal land from Somaliland in exchange for potential recognition of Somaliland’s independence, a move that has been sharply criticized by the Mogadishu government as an infringement on its sovereignty. Somalia has vowed to oppose the deal by any means necessary.
Egypt, which has long been at odds with Ethiopia over the latter’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River, has also condemned the Somaliland deal. Earlier this month, Egypt and Somalia signed a security pact, and Egypt has offered to contribute troops to a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia.
Somalia has previously threatened to expel Ethiopia’s up to 10,000 troops, who are deployed in Somalia as part of a peacekeeping mission and under bilateral agreements to combat al-Shabaab militants, if the Somaliland deal is not canceled.
On Tuesday morning, two Egyptian military planes arrived at Mogadishu airport carrying weapons and ammunition, according to two diplomats and a senior Somali official who spoke to Reuters on the condition of anonymity. A video verified by Reuters and shared on social media showed the planes on the airport tarmac.
One of the diplomats warned that Somalia was “playing with fire” by importing Egyptian arms and risking antagonizing Ethiopia.
The foreign ministries of Somalia and Egypt, as well as a spokesperson for the Ethiopian government, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The African Union announced earlier this month that Egypt had offered to contribute troops to a new peacekeeping mission set to launch in Somalia next year. Cairo has not publicly commented on the matter.
Rashid Abdi, an analyst with the Sahan Research think tank, noted, “If the Egyptians put boots on the ground and deploy troops along the border with Ethiopia, it could bring the two into direct confrontation. The threat of a direct shooting war is low, but a proxy conflict is possible.”
Turkey has hosted two rounds of indirect talks since July between Somalia and Ethiopia over the Somaliland deal, which is yet to be finalized. A third round of talks is expected next month.
Landlocked Ethiopia argues that it needs access to the sea, while Mogadishu maintains that Somaliland, despite enjoying practical autonomy for over 30 years, is still part of Somalia and has not achieved international recognition.
