Ethiopia has expressed concern that recent arms shipments to Somalia could intensify conflicts and potentially be funneled to terrorist groups, according to a report by Ethiopia’s state news agency on Tuesday.
The warning from Ethiopia’s foreign minister follows the arrival of an Egyptian warship in Mogadishu, unloading heavy weaponry for the second time in a month. This arms transfer comes in the wake of a joint security agreement signed between Egypt and Somalia in August.
Ethiopia, which has a significant military presence in Somalia to combat al Shabaab militants, has grown increasingly uneasy about its neighbor’s shifting alliances, especially Somalia’s recent collaboration with Egypt. Addis Ababa and Mogadishu have been at odds over Somalia’s ambitions to develop a port in the breakaway Somaliland region, with Ethiopia already leasing 20 km of Somaliland’s coastline in a controversial deal that could pave the way for Ethiopia to recognize Somaliland’s independence.
Tensions have mounted, with Somalia drawing closer to Egypt, a long-time adversary of Ethiopia due to disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River.
Ethiopian Foreign Minister Taye Astke Selassie voiced his fears that “external forces supplying ammunition could worsen Somalia’s already fragile security situation, and these arms could fall into terrorist hands,” according to the Ethiopian News Agency.
Somalia has not yet commented on Ethiopia’s concerns.
Rashid Abdi, an analyst from the Sahan Research think-tank, highlighted the risk of weapons ending up in the wrong hands. “Al Shabaab stands to gain, as they have already seized large amounts of weapons in 2023 through raids on enemy bases,” Abdi noted.
In December, the U.N. lifted a decades-long arms embargo on Somalia, imposed at the start of its civil war more than 30 years ago. The recent escalation in arms transfers raises questions about the long-term impact on the region’s security landscape.
Earlier this year, Somalia threatened to expel Ethiopian troops, stationed in the country as part of peacekeeping efforts and bilateral agreements, unless Ethiopia abandons the port deal with Somaliland. This intensifying geopolitical rivalry could further destabilize the Horn of Africa.
