A devastating surge in insurgent attacks since January has forced tens of thousands of Mozambicans to flee their homes in the troubled Cabo Delgado province.
Despite extensive security measures, the attacks persist, casting a shadow over French oil company TotalEnergies’ plans to resume a $20 billion liquefied natural gas terminal in Cabo Delgado in the coming months. The project had been halted in 2021 following a lethal Islamic State-linked attack in a nearby town.
Recent incidents, including a fatal clash on Feb. 9 that claimed the lives of up to 25 Mozambique Defence Armed Force soldiers, have dealt a significant blow to government efforts to curb violence, especially during an election year.
A senior government official revealed on Tuesday that over 67,000 people have fled the attacks in recent weeks, seeking refuge in the neighboring province of Nampula and other safer parts of Cabo Delgado.
UNICEF’s Mozambique spokesperson, Guy Taylor, expressed concern about the high number of displaced people being women and children, comprising more than two-thirds of the total.
Tertius Jacobs, head analyst for Mozambique at risk management firm Focus Group, reported 56 incidents of insurgent-led aggression so far this year, emphasizing a drastic increase compared to the whole of last year.
Insurgents are targeting civilian establishments such as churches and homes, posing a “significant risk” to the vital EN1 highway route, which transports essential commodities to Nacala port.
TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne affirmed the company’s cautious approach, stating they were monitoring the situation to ensure safety before resuming operations. The company refrained from providing further comments on the recent attacks.
Mozambique’s defense ministry and ExxonMobil, contemplating a separate LNG terminal in Cabo Delgado, did not respond to requests for comment.
Analysts predict an expanded role for the Rwandan army, currently patrolling the energy hub zone in northern Cabo Delgado, once the regional Southern African military force concludes its deployment in Mozambique in July.
Contrary to claims of an imminent end to the insurgency, extremism expert Jasmine Opperman focused on economic interests, stating that the situation in Cabo Delgado reflects organized chaos, fostering fear, recruitment, and the spread of an Islamic extremism narrative.
