South African political parties began coalition talks on Friday as the African National Congress (ANC) appeared set to fall short of a majority for the first time in 30 years.
Although the ANC, the party of Nelson Mandela, is expected to remain the largest political force after Wednesday’s election, voters have penalized it for economic decline and widespread poverty. With nearly 70% of polling stations reporting, the ANC had 41.8% of the vote, a significant drop from 57.5% in the 2019 election.
The Democratic Alliance (DA) was in second place with 22.6%, while uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), a new party led by former president Jacob Zuma, secured 12.2%, eroding ANC support in KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma’s home province. MK has surpassed the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which had 9.5%.
The share of votes will determine the number of seats in the National Assembly, which elects the next president. While the ANC’s leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa, may still be re-elected, the poor performance could prompt a leadership challenge.
Despite this, ANC Deputy Secretary-General Nomvula Mokonyane stated that Ramaphosa would not resign and that the party’s leadership would meet to discuss the situation.
Analysts suggested that the ANC was unlikely to regain a parliamentary majority but might achieve over 42% of the vote. The ANC has traditionally dominated national elections since the end of apartheid in 1994, but economic issues and infrastructure problems have eroded its support.
The focus now shifts to potential coalitions. DA leader John Steenhuisen indicated that talks would start over the weekend, primarily with members of the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), an alliance of 11 opposition parties. However, securing a majority would be challenging without involving the EFF or MK, which the DA has criticized as extremists.
The MK has expressed willingness to partner with the ANC, but only if Ramaphosa is not the leader. The uncertainty has impacted the government bond market, with prices falling for the third consecutive day.
The election commission has seven days to release full provisional results, with an announcement expected by Sunday.
