The Middle East war threatens Africa, the African Union and AfDB warned, raising risks of higher costs and slower economic growth.
Africa relies on the Middle East for 15.8 percent of imports and 10.9 percent of exports, exposing trade to disruption.
The conflict could trigger a cost-of-living crisis through rising fuel, food, shipping costs, and tighter fiscal and currency pressures.
Africa’s GDP may lose 0.2 percentage points in 2026 if the conflict lasts beyond six months, the report projected.
Reduced Gulf LNG shipments will hurt fertilizer production, threatening crops during the critical planting season through May.
Currency depreciation has affected 29 African nations, raising import costs, external debt pressures, and straining foreign exchange reserves.
Some countries may benefit briefly, such as Nigeria for oil and Mozambique for LNG, but gains are uneven and limited.
Rerouted shipping could help ports in Mozambique, South Africa, Namibia, and Mauritius, while Kenya and Ethiopian Airlines expand logistics roles.
The crisis may worsen inflation, budgets, food security, and humanitarian costs, diverting aid funds away from vulnerable populations.
