OPEC oil production rose in December, as higher output from Iraq, Angola, and Nigeria offset ongoing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC+ alliance. According to a Reuters survey, OPEC pumped 27.88 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, up 70,000 bpd from November. However, output is still down more than 1 million bpd from the same month a year ago.
The increase in December comes ahead of further OPEC+ cuts planned for 2024 and Angola’s exit from the group, which are expected to lower output and market share in January. OPEC’s market share has already been falling due to production restraint and the departure of some members.
The biggest production increases in December came from Iraq and Angola, which both boosted exports, according to the survey. Nigeria also shipped more crude abroad, but has not yet begun oil products output at its new Dangote refinery.
Angola’s increase is seen as a temporary one and is unlikely to be sustained into January, while Iraq still has a significant amount of production offline due to the ongoing halt in its northern crude exports via Turkey.
Among those showing lower output, Saudi Arabia trimmed production slightly below 9 million bpd, the survey found, as the top exporter extended a voluntary 1 million bpd output cut to provide additional support for the market.
Iran lowered exports in December, the survey found, with Iranian production falling slightly from a five-year high reached in November. Iran posted one of OPEC’s biggest output increases in 2023 despite U.S. sanctions still being in place.
OPEC’s output is still falling short of the targeted amount by almost 600,000 bpd, mainly because Angola and Nigeria lack the capacity to pump at current targeted levels. Angola’s exit from the group and a new Nigerian quota for 2024 should bring actual output closer to the target level.
The Reuters survey is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from companies that track flows such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC, and consultants.
