Diplomatic ties between Iran and Sudan, severed since the 2016 attacks on the Saudi Arabian Embassy in Tehran, were restored in 2023 after a hiatus of seven years.
This development carries significant regional and international implications, particularly as Sudan grapples with a devastating internal conflict.
The rejuvenation of relations between Khartoum and Tehran has the potential to not only impact the immediate region but also to shift the global balance of power.
The recent high-profile visits by Sudanese officials to Iran, coupled with Iran’s provision of weaponry to the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), have drawn attention from various regional and global actors.
Notably, Sudan’s previous leader, Omar Al-Bashir, had maintained strong ties with Iran and had participated in the Yemen operation alongside Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2016. However, Al-Bashir’s ousting in 2019 altered Sudan’s political landscape, leading to Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan assuming power.
In April 2023, General Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo, rebelled against him, sparking clashes between his Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the SAF.
The RSF swiftly gained control of significant territories across Sudan, including parts of Omdurman and areas surrounding Khartoum, posing a threat to the nation’s stability.
Facing the RSF’s advance, the SAF found itself in urgent need of external assistance. This assistance began to materialize following the resumption of diplomatic relations between Iran and Sudan.
Reports indicate that with Iran’s support, including the supply of military equipment such as Mohajer-6 unmanned aerial vehicles, the SAF has made notable gains against the RSF, reclaiming territories previously lost.
Despite the RSF’s claims of downing Iranian-made drones and reports of Sudanese possession of cargo planes affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, debates persist regarding Iran potentially providing military training to Sudanese soldiers in the future. By extending aid to the SAF, Iran aims to strengthen its presence in Africa and establish a foothold in the Red Sea, albeit Sudanese authorities rejected Iran’s proposal for a permanent naval base.
Iran’s increased involvement in Sudan signifies its broader geopolitical ambitions, aiming to bolster influence in a nation historically aligned with Saudi Arabia. This presence could further complicate dynamics in the region, particularly concerning Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.
However, Iran’s ability to manipulate the conflict in Sudan, akin to its support for Houthi rebels in Yemen, appears limited due to Sudan’s predominantly Sunni population and international scrutiny of Iran’s actions.
Moreover, the involvement of other regional powers, such as the UAE’s support for the RSF, adds complexity to the situation, indicating ongoing proxy warfare in Sudan. Saudi Arabia’s response, amid its tentative normalization process with Iran, remains uncertain and will significantly influence Iran’s position in Sudan.
As Sudan navigates this volatile period, the international community’s response, especially from key regional players and global powers, will shape the trajectory of Iran’s influence in Sudan and its broader aspirations in the Red Sea region.
