Fragile truce tested as Hormuz tanker traffic falls after attacks

Daily tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed on Friday after a fresh exchange of attacks between the United States and Iran revived concerns over the security of one of the world’s most important energy corridors.

Shipping data indicated fewer tankers were moving through the waterway, even after traffic had begun recovering under an interim truce between Washington and Tehran. The renewed hostilities have raised doubts over the durability of the ceasefire and the wider effort to reach a lasting settlement.

Oil prices eased slightly on Friday but remained on course for weekly gains of around 4–5 percent as markets reacted to the latest escalation.

The International Energy Agency said global oil supply rose by 4.1 million barrels per day in June as shipping through the strait resumed, but remained 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. It also warned that diesel and gasoline supplies remained tight, with refineries responding more slowly to the reopening of the strait than crude markets.

Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz carried around one-fifth of global oil supplies. Since the conflict began, Iran has asserted greater control over traffic through the waterway, creating a tense standoff with the United States.

Under the interim arrangement, Washington ended its naval blockade of Iranian ports, while Tehran agreed to guarantee safe passage for commercial vessels.

But the fragile deal came under pressure this week after Washington accused Iranian forces of attacking three tankers near the strait. The United States responded by striking Iranian military sites along the southern coast and in eastern provinces.

Iran has not claimed responsibility for the tanker attacks, though analysts say Tehran has repeatedly used pressure on Gulf shipping as leverage in negotiations.

Tehran then launched attacks on U.S. military sites in Gulf states on Thursday.

Washington said its strikes were aimed at keeping the strait open and rejected Iran’s claim to control passage through the waterway. Tehran warned that shipping would only resume on its terms and said any U.S. intervention would face a “crushing response.”

The attacks on Qatari and Saudi vessels prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to declare that the truce was “over.” However, a U.S. official later said Washington remained committed to a negotiated resolution and that technical talks were continuing.

The New York Times reported that Qatar had been holding talks with both Washington and Tehran in an effort to de-escalate the crisis.

Before this week’s attacks, daily tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had climbed to its highest level since the war began, averaging around 40 vessels a day. That remained far below the pre-conflict average of 125 to 140 daily sailings.

The escalation comes as Iran continues a week of mourning for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was buried on Thursday at the country’s holiest shrine in Mashhad.

Khamenei was killed in an airstrike on February 28, the first day of the war, during a U.S.-Israeli barrage that triggered months of conflict, killed thousands and severely disrupted global energy supplies.

A condolence ceremony is due to be held on Friday after sunset prayers in Qom on behalf of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei for his father, according to his office. Mojtaba Khamenei, who was injured in the same strike that killed his father, has not appeared publicly since the attack.

Trump’s failure to end the war has become a growing political problem at home, with Republicans facing midterm elections later this year amid high fuel prices and rising voter frustration.

U.S. Central Command said its forces struck around 90 Iranian military targets on Wednesday. Iranian state media said the strikes killed 14 people and injured 78.

Iran’s army said it targeted U.S. Patriot systems in Kuwait, an early-warning site in Qatar and a U.S. Army fuel depot in Bahrain. The Revolutionary Guards later said Iran fired 10 ballistic missiles at Jordan’s Azraq military base, which is used by U.S. forces.

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