US intelligence assessments suggest that Israel is likely to launch a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities by mid-2025, potentially escalating regional tensions and risking a broader conflict.
The strike would target Iran’s Fordow and Natanz nuclear sites, setting back Iran’s nuclear program by months. Such an attack is expected to heighten instability in the region, according to intelligence reports spanning the latter part of the Biden administration and early Trump years.
While the White House, CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence have all declined to comment, Brian Hughes, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council, stated that President Trump “will not permit Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon” but prefers to negotiate peacefully if possible.
The intelligence reports, the most detailed of which were compiled in January by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Defense Intelligence Agency, indicate that Israel views a strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure as imminent. Following Israel’s October airstrike, which weakened Iran’s air defenses, Israeli officials believe the country is now vulnerable to further attacks.
The intelligence also outlined two possible strike scenarios in which the United States would provide aerial refueling and intelligence support. This comes amid heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, with both nations engaging in tit-for-tat attacks over the past year, particularly in relation to the conflict in Gaza.
President Trump, in a recent Fox News interview, expressed his preference for a diplomatic resolution over military intervention, acknowledging that while Israel may seek to strike with US assistance, he hopes to avoid such an outcome.
This new development follows the US withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal under Trump, after which Iran resumed its nuclear enrichment program. European powers, along with Iran, have continued efforts to resume nuclear talks, with Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, confirming ongoing discussions in Geneva this January.
