As Sudan’s rainy season draws to a close, the nation braces for a potentially brutal escalation in its ongoing civil war. Seasonal rains, which turned parts of the country into muddy, impassable terrain, have acted as a natural barrier to large-scale combat, slowing down military operations since July.
However, with the rains subsiding and the ground drying, fighting is expected to intensify in the coming months.
Impact of the Dry Season on Fighting
Last year, the onset of the dry season (October to December) triggered significant clashes in cities such as Nyala, Zalingei, Balila, and El Geneina, with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) claiming decisive victories.
The RSF has emerged as a dominant force in Sudan’s conflict, launching a war against General al-Burhan’s Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in April 2023. Despite the challenges of sustained combat, the RSF has successfully expanded its control over vast swathes of the country.
Currently, RSF territory extends from the Chadian border in the west to Khartoum in the center, and to the Ethiopian border near Dinder National Park in the southeast, covering an area roughly the size of Iraq or Sweden.
Meanwhile, the SAF, led by remnants of the former regime’s military leadership, has largely retreated to the Red Sea port city of Port Sudan.
Though armed with fresh recruits and international backing, the SAF remains on the defensive, having boycotted ceasefire negotiations and suffered losses across key fronts.
Forecast of Escalation
As the dry season unfolds, military analysts anticipate a surge in conflict across multiple fronts. The SAF is unlikely to regain the upper hand in the near future, with a greater probability of RSF consolidating its territorial gains.
Humanitarian experts fear the renewed fighting could displace between 200,000 and 2 million civilians, with the North Darfur city of El Fasher alone poised to add 200,000 more displaced people to the growing crisis.
While SAF continues to hope for a military turnaround, it faces considerable challenges. To shift the course of the war, the military must negate the RSF’s mobility and tactical advantages, a goal it has yet to achieve. The SAF’s static defense positions have been vulnerable to the RSF’s rapid maneuvering and surprise raids.
Key Battlefronts to Watch
Sennar and Gedaref:
RSF forces are concentrated around Sennar City, which remains under SAF control, though surrounded on three sides.
A successful RSF assault here could mirror previous victories in Wad Madani and Jebel Aulia, triggering the collapse of SAF defenses. In neighboring Gedaref, SAF troops are on high alert, anticipating an RSF push into the region.
Khartoum:
Sudan’s capital remains divided, with the RSF controlling most of the city and the SAF holding only a few key areas, including parts of the university, the Armed Forces headquarters, and a small southeastern residential enclave.
While full RSF control of Khartoum remains a possibility, analysts suggest that the capital is more likely to see a continued stalemate, with low-level skirmishes and drone strikes persisting.
Omdurman and Bahri:
In contrast, Omdurman, Khartoum’s twin city, has witnessed significant SAF breakthroughs, and the potential for heavy fighting remains high.
Meanwhile, Khartoum North (Bahri) continues to be contested, with SAF resistance confined to two small enclaves.
River Nile:
The RSF’s reconnaissance missions in River Nile State, the home region of top military leaders, suggest that the group may attempt to strike symbolic targets, such as the town of Shendi.
Such an offensive could trigger fierce resistance, though the overall likelihood of a large-scale battle remains uncertain.
Darfur and Kordofan:
North Darfur’s El Fasher has become one of the deadliest battlefronts. While the SAF continues to hold parts of the city, the RSF’s siege is steadily closing in.
The conflict could spill into other areas of Darfur, though RSF dominance in the region makes escalation less likely.
In Kordofan, tensions remain high in North Kordofan’s El Obeid, the only SAF-controlled city in the region. Though an all-out RSF assault is unlikely due to local tribal alliances, the RSF will likely continue to besiege the city while maintaining supply lines between Darfur and the Nile Valley.
White Nile and Blue Nile:
RSF ambitions extend to White Nile State, which shares borders with several RSF-controlled regions. A push by the RSF here could displace large populations southward toward the Republic of South Sudan.
Meanwhile, Blue Nile State, with its political ties to the SAF and local militias, remains at risk, though RSF gains here are considered unlikely for now.
Long-Term Prospects
With no ceasefire in sight, Sudan’s civil war could drag on well beyond the coming dry season. The SAF’s reliance on static defenses and its limited capacity to strike at RSF-controlled areas leaves the military vulnerable, even in regions far from the frontlines.
As the conflict rages on, the question remains whether the RSF’s winning streak will continue or if the SAF can finally turn the tide of war.
