Fighting in Sudan is escalating as the rainy season ends, with Burhan’s army intensifying airstrikes and enlisting allied militias to bolster its position ahead of a potential surge by the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
The conflict, which began in April 2023, has already led to a dire humanitarian crisis.
Over 10 million people, one-fifth of the population, are displaced, making it the world’s largest displacement crisis.
Famine has been confirmed, and UN agencies have struggled to deliver aid.
A senior Western diplomat in the region warned of further fragmentation and increased involvement of armed groups, making the situation more difficult.
“There won’t be a decisive breakthrough,” said a senior Western diplomat in the region, speaking on condition of anonymity due to political sensitivities.
“What we expect to come into the fall more and more is much more fragmentation, to see more armed groups getting involved … And this will make the situation in general much more difficult.”
The RSF has had the upper hand in much of the conflict, but Burhan’s army recently launched its biggest offensive in Khartoum.
In Darfur, former rebel groups and militias have rallied to defend al-Fashir, Burhan’s last holdout in the fight.
Burhan has been replenishing weaponry and training new militias to strengthen its position before any negotiations.
Both sides have intensified their military efforts, with Burhan carrying out more air bombardments and the RSF preparing for a “hot winter.”
The RSF has gained ground in Sennar, and heavy fighting has been reported in both Sennar and the capital.
The conflict has deepened, drawing on material support from foreign backers.
Burhan’s army and RSF have been jostling for power and wealth ahead of a planned political transition.
The RSF quickly captured much of the capital and controlled Darfur and El Gezira state.
Burhan’s army has gained ground in Omdurman but has shown little sign of building on its advance.
It now controls the Halfaya bridge and has been advancing across another Nile bridge leading to the heart of the capital.
The fighting has exacerbated the humanitarian situation in Darfur, with disease and starvation spreading.
Aid workers and human rights activists say there has been little increase in humanitarian relief, despite pledges by both sides to improve access for aid.
