Shadows of looming war endangers stability on Sudan’s eastern frontier

In the strife-torn landscape of Sudan, a looming threat now hangs over the eastern border, which has remained relatively untouched by the country’s nine-month-long conflict.

Recent developments indicate an encroaching frontline and reports of military training camps across the border in Eritrea, putting the fragile peace in the region at risk.

Sudan’s ongoing war has claimed thousands of lives, with the western Darfur region alone witnessing between 10,000 and 15,000 casualties, according to UN experts. The conflict is a power struggle between Sudan’s army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who leads the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The RSF, reportedly backed by the United Arab Emirates, has made significant territorial gains in central, western, and southern Sudan. In recent months, its expansion into Al-Jazira state, southeast of Khartoum, has opened access to routes leading east, towards the Ethiopian and Eritrean borders, and reaching Port Sudan, where government officials loyal to the army have relocated.

Port Sudan is a critical lifeline for aid during the conflict, affecting around 7.6 million displaced people and leaving over half the population in need of humanitarian assistance, as per the United Nations.

Anonymous sources report the training of Sudanese fighters in Eritrea, heightening tensions. Eritrea, despite its isolation, is suspected of supporting Burhan’s war effort through these camps.

Deputy Malik Agar’s visit to Asmara in January, where discussions centered on preventing the spread of war, adds to the complexity.

Rebel groups, including the United People’s Front for Liberation and Justice, accuse Eritrea of training fighters, warning of a regional war if these practices persist. The Eritrean National Council for Democratic Change claims Sudanese fighters are being trained by Eritrean soldiers in camps established by the regime.

The Rift Valley Institute’s June report highlights Eritrea’s wariness of Dagalo and concerns that supporting him could empower the UAE in eastern Sudan.

The UAE denies supplying the RSF with munitions.

As tensions rise, Eritrea is expected to increase influence among eastern Sudan’s communities. Training camps in Eritrea run by various figures, including Sudanese rebel leader Ibrahim Dounia, suggest complex allegiances, with some camps supporting the army in the current conflict.

The situation remains precarious, and the risk of a broader regional conflict looms over Sudan’s eastern border.

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