Sudan Deal: Is El-Fasher the price for a Khartoum withdrawal?

As fighting between General al-Burhan’s army (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) drags on, reports have surfaced suggesting a covert deal between the 2 sides that could reshape power dynamics in the country.

According to informed sources, the proposed agreement would see the RSF withdraw from Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, in exchange for full control of El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur.

El-Fasher: A Strategic Stronghold

El-Fasher holds immense strategic and political significance in the Darfur region, serving as an administrative and economic hub. The city also carries symbolic weight, having historically been a center of influence for armed factions and local groups.

For the RSF, led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), seizing El-Fasher would cement its dominance in Darfur, its traditional stronghold and primary power base. Meanwhile, the SAF might view the trade-off as a way to de-escalate clashes in Khartoum, where Sudan’s military-controlled government remains entrenched.

Withdrawal from Khartoum: Tactical Move or Long-Term Strategy?

Since the conflict erupted in April 2023, Khartoum has become the epicenter of intense battles, suffering widespread destruction and the displacement of hundreds of thousands.

If the RSF does withdraw, it could indicate a strategic shift—redirecting resources toward consolidating power in Darfur rather than expending forces in a costly urban battle. Conversely, the SAF may see this as an opportunity to reclaim the capital, a crucial step in asserting control over Sudan’s broader territory.

The rumored deal raises several critical concerns regarding Sudan’s future trajectory.

Firstly, there is the potential for the agreement to further deepen territorial and political divisions within the country. If implemented, it could solidify a geographic split between Darfur and the rest of Sudan, making national reconciliation even more challenging.

And second, the deal could have serious ramifications for Sudan’s peace process. A secretive arrangement of this magnitude might undermine international mediation efforts aimed at resolving the conflict.

As Sudan’s conflict evolves, this reported deal—if true—could mark a major shift in territorial control, with both immediate and long-term risks for the country’s unity and stability. The key question remains: will it ease tensions or further entrench divisions?

With global attention fixed on Sudan, one thing is certain—civilians remain the biggest casualties of the ongoing war.

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