In the midst of Sudan’s brutal civil war, a new “Scramble for Africa” is unfolding, with autocratic regimes from Iran, Russia, and China vying for control over the country’s strategic resources and key maritime assets, particularly the SAF-controlled Port Sudan on the Red Sea.
This modern-day scramble echoes the colonial ambitions of the late 19th century, when European powers like Britain, France, and Germany carved up Africa. But while European colonial influence has waned, a new set of aggressive players is emerging, with Sudan now a primary battleground for their geopolitical interests.
The ongoing conflict has devastated the Sudanese population, with the UN estimating at least 15,000 deaths over the past year, though aid agencies suggest the toll may be higher. Over 8.6 million people have been displaced, and 25 million are in urgent need of humanitarian aid, including a record number of displaced children.
The war pits Sudan’s ruling Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
This brutal power struggle has drawn the attention of external autocratic powers eager to expand their influence in the region.
China, a major investor in Sudan with approximately $6 billion in investments since 2005, has a vested interest in the country’s maritime assets, eyeing Port Sudan as a pivotal point in its Belt and Road initiative. Russia, previously involved through the Wagner Group is now backing al-Burhan’s SAF with extensive military aid, hoping to secure a naval base at Port Sudan as part of a 2020 agreement.
The Kremlin’s shifting allegiance follows the death of Wagner’s leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and reflects Moscow’s desire to challenge Western interests by bolstering its presence in the region.
Concurrently, Iran’s involvement has intensified, with reports indicating that Iranian-made drones are now being used by the SAF. Iran’s support for Russia in Ukraine and its historical ties with Sudan add further complexity to the conflict.
The growing influence of these autocratic regimes in Sudan threatens to disrupt Western trade routes through the Red Sea and could complete Tehran’s strategic encirclement of Israel.
The situation underscores the urgent need for international diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis and prevent further entrenchment of hostile powers in Sudan.
Western policymakers must act swiftly to counterbalance the influence of Iran, Russia, and China, ensuring that Sudan does not become a staging ground for their broader geopolitical ambitions and a threat to global stability.
