Sudanese citizens are closely watching efforts by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to bring an end to the devastating war that has pushed the country to the brink of division. Despite numerous failed attempts, the warring factions have thus far resisted peace talks.
Trump’s term is set to begin on January 20, but Sudanese analysts believe that it may take the new administration at least three months to fully engage with the Sudanese crisis.
Under outgoing President Joe Biden, U.S. policy struggled to halt the conflict in Sudan. Although Washington appointed a special envoy, Tom Periello, to engage in nine months of negotiations with Sudanese parties, his efforts failed to make significant progress.
The U.S. diplomatic initiatives have consistently been thwarted by the stubborn stance of Sudanese military leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, whose SAF largely boycotted peace talks, while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) remained actively involved in dialogue.
Complex Situation
Political analyst Omar Mohamed Noor views the chances of the new U.S. administration making a breakthrough as slim. He noted that Sudan’s crisis is growing more complex by the day. “The new president will need at least three months to review the Sudanese file, and by that time, the country will be on the verge of further division,” Noor said.
Noor also warned that the Trump administration will face a different situation in Sudan than the one Biden dealt with, suggesting that Washington may resort to pressuring the country’s leaders to solidify a two-government state, paving the way for potential future division.
A new U.S. envoy is expected to be appointed in January after Congress approved a proposal for a two-year term. According to the decision, the president will appoint the special envoy following Senate consultation, with the envoy’s term beginning within 90 days of the decision.
Diplomatic Goals
The new special envoy will lead U.S. diplomatic efforts on Sudan, focusing on supporting political solutions to the conflict and addressing the humanitarian crisis caused by the war. The envoy will report directly to the U.S. Secretary of State and consult with relevant Congressional committees.
The mandate of the new envoy includes efforts to end the 19-month conflict, establish a path toward sustainable peace, support democratic transformation, and coordinate with local and international partners on policy implementation.
Pressing Challenges
Political analyst Ammar al-Baqir expressed skepticism that the Trump administration could quickly resolve the Sudanese crisis, pointing out that the SAF is unlikely to yield to external pressure. “The Sudanese military could turn to countries like Russia to counter U.S. pressure,” Baqir explained, noting that the geopolitical dynamics in Sudan limit Washington’s ability to push the warring parties toward negotiation.
He added that while Washington may not be immediately impacted by the ongoing conflict, the Trump administration is likely to exert pressure on the combatants to reach a deal that aligns with U.S. interests in the region.
Baqir predicted that the SAF will continue to resist peace negotiation initiatives, with little indication that it seeks to end the war through dialogue. “Historical precedent in Sudan’s conflicts against insurgents in South Sudan and Darfur shows that the military does not prioritize peace talks,” he said.
As the war nears its second anniversary, Sudanese factions, including the SAF, RSF, and political groups, have all congratulated Trump on his election victory, signaling their willingness to cooperate in efforts to end the war.
The ongoing conflict has displaced over 11 million people, and more than half of Sudan’s population—around 25 million people—now faces the threat of famine.
