Niger’s military authorities have launched a nationwide mobilisation ahead of a planned large-scale offensive against armed groups that have made significant territorial gains in recent months, according to a military source.
The source, speaking to Erem News on condition of anonymity, said the operation would involve a coordinated ground assault backed by air power, as the government of General Abdourahamane Tiani seeks to regain control of areas threatened by Islamist insurgents.
The planned offensive is expected to target fighters affiliated with Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-linked coalition that has intensified its operations across Niger and the wider Sahel.
Although no timetable has been announced, military reinforcements have reportedly arrived in Tillabéri, a western region bordering Mali and Burkina Faso that has experienced repeated deadly attacks.
The reported preparations come amid mounting criticism of Niger’s military leadership over its failure to contain worsening insecurity, despite taking power in a July 2023 coup partly justified by promises to restore stability.
Military leadership faces growing security crisis
Political analyst Eric Eziba said the deteriorating security situation in Tillabéri and other regions had increased pressure on Tiani to launch a major counteroffensive.
However, he warned that the operation’s success would depend on the military’s ability to mobilise sufficient forces and achieve meaningful gains against increasingly organised insurgent groups.
Eziba told Erem News that Niger’s leadership was confronting a serious security challenge as JNIM and other armed organisations expanded their operations and threatened areas closer to the capital, Niamey.
He argued that the military government needed to regain the initiative before insurgent groups consolidated their recent advances.
The effectiveness of any offensive would also depend heavily on the scale of Russian assistance, he said.
Niger has increasingly turned to Moscow for military cooperation since severing longstanding defence arrangements with France and the United States.
Despite the shift in alliances, armed groups have continued to expand their activities, raising questions about the military government’s ability to restore security.
Uncertainty surrounds Russian military support
Russia’s potential role in the planned offensive remains uncertain, with analysts questioning whether Moscow is prepared to commit substantial additional resources to Niger.
African affairs analyst Ibrahim Habibou said several local reports indicated that Niger was preparing a counteroffensive, but uncertainty persisted over the extent of Russian participation.
Habibou told Erem News that Moscow could regard a major military campaign as a considerable risk, particularly given its continuing military commitments in Ukraine and the demand for attack helicopters.
He said Russian forces might be reluctant to provide the level of air support needed for a sustained campaign against armed groups operating across Niger’s vast and difficult terrain.
Without significant Russian assistance, Niger’s military could struggle to secure decisive battlefield gains, he warned.
The challenge has become increasingly complex as insurgent organisations adapt their tactics, improve their operational capabilities and demonstrate greater confidence in attacks against government positions.
Pressure mounts on Tiani
Tiani has repeatedly accused France of supporting armed organisations seeking to destabilise Niger, including groups affiliated with al-Qaeda. Those allegations remain contested and have not been independently established.
The military leadership has presented its security partnerships with Russia and neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso as central to its strategy for defeating insurgent groups.
However, continued attacks and territorial losses have intensified scrutiny of the government’s counterinsurgency efforts.
The reported mobilisation represents a potentially significant escalation in Niger’s campaign against armed groups, although the size of the force being assembled, the operation’s objectives and the extent of foreign military involvement remain unclear.
With insurgents increasingly challenging government control across western Niger, the planned offensive could become a critical test of Tiani’s ability to reverse militant advances and restore military authority in contested regions.
