The African Development Bank (AfDB) has lowered its 2025 economic growth forecast for Africa to 3.9%, down from its initial projection.
This revision, announced in its annual African Economic Outlook report on Tuesday, is attributed mainly to the uncertainty caused by newly imposed trade tariffs by the United States.
The current forecast, encompassing all 54 member states, still represents an acceleration from last year’s 3.3% growth.
The AfDB also reduced its 2026 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 4.0% due to the same trade tariff uncertainties.
The bank stated that the global macroeconomic landscape has become more complex since January 2025 due to additional shocks, including the US tariffs and retaliatory measures from its trading partners.
This turmoil is expected to dampen global demand, consequently curbing Africa’s exports.
The AfDB noted that the ultimate growth impact hinges on the decision regarding the 90-day pause on the US “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Although the US accounts for a small portion of Africa’s overall trade (5%), the continent has already experienced price drops in commodities and a downward revaluation of financial assets.
The projected 2025 growth will be supported by over 5% growth in 21 African economies, with Ethiopia, Niger, Rwanda, and Senegal expected to grow by at least 7%.
The AfDB, Africa’s largest development lender, manages $318 billion in capital.
