OPEC’s oil supply rises in August

Total crude oil production from the 13 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), OPEC-13, increased by 113,000 barrels per day (bpd) month on month in August.

According to OPEC’s monthly oil market report released on Tuesday, total OPEC-13 crude oil production averaged 27.45 million bpd in August.

Crude oil output increased mainly in Iran, Nigeria and Iraq, while production in Saudi Arabia, Angola, and Venezuela decreased.

Iran increased production by 143,000 bpd, followed by Nigeria with 98,000 bpd and Iraq with 38,000 bpd. Output fell by 88,000 bpd in Saudi Arabia last month, by 60,000 bpd in Angola and by 42,000 bpd in Venezuela.

The share of OPEC crude oil in total global production increased by 0.1 percentage points to stand at 27.2% in August.

Global supply remains unchanged

Global oil production remained broadly unchanged, averaging 100.7 million bpd compared with the previous month.

Non-OPEC production in August declined by around 100,000 bpd to an average of 73.3 million bpd, marking a year-on-year rise of 2.3 million bpd.

Other Eurasia and China were mainly responsible for the production rises, which more than offset any output drops in Russia.

Meanwhile, the global rig count totaled 1,860 in August, a decrease of 34 from July, with OPEC countries accounting for 436 rigs.

A total of 40 drilling rigs were closed in non-OPEC countries, and six new rigs were engaged for production in OPEC countries.

Global oil demand forecasts for 2023 and 2024

Global oil demand forecasts for 2023 remained broadly unchanged from the previous month’s estimate.

According to the latest OPEC oil market report, global oil demand is anticipated to rise by 2.4 million bpd to average 102.1 million bpd in 2023.

Demand in the OECD region is expected to rise by 120,000 bpd to average 46.1 million bpd. Led by the US, demand in the OECD Americas is expected to witness the largest regional rise.

In the non-OECD region, total oil demand is forecast to rise by about 2.3 million bpd to an average of 55.9 million bpd in 2023.

“A steady increase in transportation and industrial fuel demand, supported by a recovery in China’s activity, as well as in other non-OECD regions, is projected to boost demand in the region in 2023,” the report said.

OPEC also predicted that solid global economic growth, amid continued improvements in China, would further boost oil consumption next year.

In 2024, global oil demand is expected to grow by “a healthy” 2.2 million bpd year on year to reach 104.3 million bpd.

The non-OECD region is set to drive this growth, increasing by about 2 million bpd, with China, India, the Middle East and Other Asia contributing the most.

The OECD is expected to grow by about 0.3 million bpd, with OECD Americas contributing the largest increase.


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