Could Nakhchivan potentially ignite another conflict in Europe?

You may have just recently become familiar with “Nagorno-Karabakh,” but in the ever-complicated Caucasus region, there’s always more to learn.

Today, let’s dive into “Nakhchivan,” a small exclave that has the potential to ignite the next significant conflict not just in Caucasus region but in Europe as well.

What is Nakchivan?

Nakhchivan, with a population of approximately half a million Azerbaijanis, is a region within Azerbaijan that is geographically isolated from the rest of the country by a narrow strip of Southern Armenia. Prior to 1991, these borders held little significance, as both Armenia and Azerbaijan were united as part of the broader Soviet Union.

However, with the dissolution of the USSR and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh in the early 1990s, Armenia severed Azerbaijan’s land connections to Nakhchivan.

This compelled Azerbaijan to establish alternative routes through its neighbouring country, Iran, and increase its reliance on Turkey, which shares a limited border with Nakhchivan.

Nakhchivan the next flashpoint in Caucasus

With the reconquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijani forces have regained control over the entirety of Azerbaijan’s territory, extending right up to the Armenian border region of Syunik. This region serves as the only separation between Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan exclave, covering a distance of just about 20 miles.

A more confident Azerbaijan is reviving historic appeals to establish an Azeri-administered “corridor” cutting through southern Armenia.

Turkey, a steadfast supporter of its ethnolinguistic brethren, the Azeris, is also in favor of this concept. Connecting Azerbaijan, Nakhchivan, and Turkey would result in a pan-Turkic entity spanning from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean.

Shortly after reclaiming Nagorno-Karabakh, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan met with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in Nakhchivan to advocate for the creation of this new corridor.

Armenians in panic mode

In the event that Azerbaijan takes actions to establish a new reality, would any nation intervene in defense of Armenia? The results of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict provide little cause to believe so. Azerbaijan, with support from Turkey, currently holds a dominant position, allowing it to significantly influence the configuration of the South Caucasus map.

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