Experts say Sudan is unlikely to regain its African Union (AU) membership during the upcoming AU summit, set to take place on Friday, as the conditions that led to its suspension remain unchanged.
Sudan’s junta leader, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, has been lobbying for the country’s reinstatement, but analysts believe the AU will maintain its suspension. The Sudanese junta has intensified diplomatic efforts ahead of the summit, seeking to reclaim Sudan’s seat in the regional bloc.
The AU summit is expected to address several key issues, including the election of a new commission chairperson to replace Moussa Faki. The candidates include former Djiboutian Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, and former Malagasy Foreign Minister Richard Randriamandrato.
Obstacles to Reinstatement
Political analyst Ali al-Dali told Erem News that Sudan’s suspension is likely to remain in place due to ongoing conflict and the presence of a parallel government in areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
“Burhan has undertaken extensive diplomatic efforts, including visits to influential AU member states, to rally support for Sudan’s reinstatement. However, major obstacles persist,” al-Dali said.
He noted that the army-backed administration in Port Sudan has pushed for AU membership restoration, particularly through Burhan’s recent public statements about forming a civilian government. Still, al-Dali argued, “simply announcing a civilian government will not be enough to convince the AU to lift Sudan’s suspension.”
The parallel administration expected to be formed in RSF-controlled areas poses a significant challenge, he added. “This rival government will contest Burhan’s authority in representing Sudan at international forums, undermining his efforts to restore AU membership.”
The AU’s decision to suspend Sudan was driven by international and regional demands for an end to the war. Analysts believe the suspension remains a key pressure tactic to push warring factions toward negotiations.
“The continuation of hostilities is a major hurdle,” al-Dali said, adding that U.S. sanctions on Sudanese military leaders could also influence the AU’s decision. “The AU’s stance is closely tied to international positions on Sudan.”
Al-Dali pointed to ongoing regional and international diplomatic efforts, including discussions about holding a high-level meeting alongside the AU summit to address Sudan’s crisis.
“Several influential AU member states remain neutral on Sudan’s crisis and are likely to vote in favor of maintaining the suspension,” he said.
For Burhan to achieve Sudan’s reinstatement, “he must overcome these challenges and work toward an actual ceasefire rather than just discussing a civilian government,” al-Dali said. “The world is watching for tangible steps to end the suffering in Sudan.”
On Sunday, General al-Burhan announced a “roadmap” for post-war transition, including national dialogue, forming a technocratic civilian government, amending the constitutional document, and selecting a civilian prime minister.
However, experts see this move as an attempt to gain AU recognition before a rival government emerges in RSF-controlled areas.
AU Membership Criteria
Sudanese political analyst Abu Ubaida Bargouth ruled out the possibility of Sudan’s reinstatement, arguing that the country has not met the AU’s conditions.
“The reasons for Sudan’s suspension remain, and new factors have emerged,” he told Erem News. He cited the military’s 2021 coup against the transitional government and the subsequent outbreak of war, which led to a complete constitutional collapse.
“Under AU rules and statutes, Sudan is currently ineligible for membership,” Bargouth said. “Until the situation changes, the suspension will remain in place.”
