Experts have warned that Iran’s growing influence in Sudan may exacerbate the ongoing armed conflict and prolong the war. Critics suggest that SAF chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan may be willing to sacrifice the country’s sovereignty in exchange for weapons to help resolve the military standoff with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), according to reports.
This warning comes as Sudan’s Foreign Minister Ali Yusuf Ahmed Sharif arrived in Tehran on Monday for an official visit aimed at strengthening bilateral ties, as reported by the Sudanese News Agency (SUNA).
Iranian Control Over Sudan’s SAF
Sudan’s Ambassador to Iran, Abdel Aziz Hassan Saleh, confirmed that during his visit, Sharif would meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and other officials to brief them on developments in Sudan and explore ways to enhance bilateral relations and exchange views on regional and international issues.
Experts tell Erm News that Iran is steadily increasing its control over the General al-Burhan’s army (SAF), particularly after the return of the Muslim Brotherhood’s allies to power. These allies now hold significant influence over the country’s devastating war decisions.
Experts also warn that Sharif’s visit may present Iran with a final opportunity to fully extend its influence over Sudan in exchange for weapons that Al-Burhan may seek to secure from Tehran.
Iran’s Expanding Influence
Political analyst Omar Mohamed Noor explained that the visit could mark the beginning of the full restoration of Sudan-Iran relations. He noted, “While relations had been partially resumed in the past, the minister’s visit could signal a return to the pre-2016 status, when former president Omar al-Bashir severed ties and expelled the Iranian ambassador.”
Noor predicted that Iran would capitalize on the visit to strengthen its cultural influence in Sudan, potentially opening new Hussayniyah centers, and expand its military footprint. He added that the current environment in Sudan is conducive to such expansion.
Noor further speculated that Iran could take advantage of the war conditions to deploy Revolutionary Guard forces to train loyal militias, heightening the conflict and extending its duration. He pointed to accusations that the Bara’ bin Malik Brigade has been linked to Iran, which could fuel the conflict for years.
Al-Burhan’s Alignment with Iran
Noor emphasized that Al-Burhan, whose primary concern is holding onto power, is unlikely to oppose Iran’s expansion in Sudan if Tehran offers the military aid he needs to resolve the war with the RSF.
He pointed out that the SAF chief sees little threat beyond the potential loss of his position and is seeking any means to maintain power.
He added that Al-Burhan has no real alternative but to align with Iran, given that the Muslim Brotherhood now controls Sudan’s foreign policy and diplomatic relations.
Iranian Weapons for Al-Burhan
Political analyst Dawood Khater also pointed out that Al-Burhan’s shift toward Iran is primarily driven by a desire for weapons. He noted, “Iran is the only country that can provide Sudan with the arms it needs, as it is isolated diplomatically and under global sanctions. Iran is seeking new regional allies, and Sudan provides an opportunity.”
Khater added that Iran’s assistance would not only win Al-Burhan’s favor but also help Tehran solidify its influence in Sudan.
Diplomatic Tensions with the West
The deepening Sudan-Iran ties are expected to strain Al-Burhan’s relations with Western nations, which have long opposed Iran. However, analysts believe Al-Burhan will not be concerned about this, so long as he receives the military support he needs.
Khater also suggested that Al-Burhan and the Muslim Brotherhood may be willing to sell out Sudan’s national interests in exchange for military aid, emphasizing their immediate goal of escaping the current war.
Iran’s Involvement in Sudan’s Conflict
Iran has faced accusations of fueling Sudan’s conflict by supplying arms, including drones. Recently, al-Burhan’s SAF reportedly used incendiary weapons in several aerial bombings over Khartoum and Darfur, with local reports suggesting that these weapons were of Iranian origin.
In a notable incident, Sudan’s RSF announced the downing of an Iranian “Shahed 129” drone in northern Khartoum, which had been used to target civilians. The RSF’s statement highlighted the military supplies being funneled into Sudan through Iranian backing.
The Sudanese ambassador to Iran confirmed that the two nations would hold their first political consultation meeting following the resumption of diplomatic ties. The discussions will cover bilateral and global issues of mutual concern.
Recent exchanges between Sudan and Iran have included visits by Sudanese Finance Minister Jibril Ibrahim to Tehran last November, and Iranian Assistant Minister for Economy and Finance recently visiting Port Sudan.
