The U.S. State Department is finalizing plans for ceasefire talks between Sudan’s warring factions in Geneva, set to begin on August 14.
Despite this, there are reports that preliminary consultations with Sudan’s military regime have encountered significant challenges.
The latest push for a ceasefire has gained some momentum both within Sudan and across the region, yet its success remains uncertain.
SAF hardliners are reportedly working to undermine the initiative and extend the conflict.
Sudan’s military junta, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and his SAF have attempted to stall the talks.
Meanwhile, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, have confirmed their participation and will be present at Geneva on August 15.
U.S. Special Envoy Tom Perriello announced his arrival in Geneva via social media on Sunday, expressing optimism about the upcoming peace talks:
“With thanks to Saudi Arabia and Switzerland as co-hosts, I’m excited to arrive in Geneva from Jeddah to launch this urgent international effort in Switzerland to end the crisis in Sudan. In addition to consultations with the parties, we have heard from tens of thousands of civilians inside and outside of Sudan. Their message is clear: they want an end to the daily terror of shelling, starvation, and sieges, and the United States and our partners stand committed to answering that call.”
This statement followed reports of consultations between the U.S. government and Sudan’s military regime in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Sudanese and Saudi media indicated that these talks “failed” or “ended without a breakthrough.”
Sudan’s military government, now based in Port Sudan after losing control of Khartoum, sent a low-ranking official, Minister of Minerals Mohamed Bashir Abunommo, to the Jeddah consultations.
Abunommo, affiliated with the party of Minni Minawi, not the more influential Islamists or military factions, confirmed the lack of agreement on the Sudanese delegation’s participation in the Geneva talks.
He stated on Facebook that disagreements over several “details” led to the end of the consultations, and the government leadership would now decide whether to proceed to Geneva.
Additionally, al-Burhan’s government seeks to involve third-party actors, particularly allied Darfur movements, to avoid the appearance of negotiating with the RSF as equals.
While this demand might be off the table, appointing Abunommo, who is part of SLM-Minawi, as negotiator allows the regime to distance itself from the Geneva process and indirectly forces the participation of allied Darfur movements.
Saudi news outlet Al-Arabiya reported that Perriello suggested the government delegation be led by a senior army officer to ensure the round’s success and expedite the process.
This move would meet the RSF’s demand to negotiate exclusively with the military, as the RSF insists there is no legitimate government in Sudan following the October 2021 coup and the subsequent breakdown after the April 15th conflict.
Despite the challenges, Perriello remained optimistic, stating on Twitter on August 10, “As the United States prepares for urgent Sudan ceasefire talks next week, we are holding final meetings in Jeddah hosted by the Saudi Government to wind up months of consultations with parties to the conflict, regional partners, technical experts and, most importantly, the tens of thousands of Sudanese people who have reached out, demanding an end to this war and famine.”
Will SAF no-show?
The United States’ approach in the event of a no-show by Sudan’s Port Sudan regime at the upcoming Geneva talks remains uncertain.
Al-Arabiya reports that technical consultations among international parties will commence on August 14 in Geneva, even if the Sudanese army delegation fails to participate.
Details from the U.S. regarding the format of the Geneva negotiations are sparse.
However, the Arab League, African Union, IGAD, European Union, and several Middle Eastern and African nations are expected to attend as observers. They may also hold separate consultations, potentially giving the talks a summit-like nature.
Sudan’s absence would likely draw significant domestic and international criticism, though it’s anticipated that a delegation, possibly not at a senior level with a mandate for a comprehensive agreement, will be dispatched by President Al-Burhan.
Sudan’s civil war has become a stage for regional powers vying for influence. Seeking external support, Sudan’s military has turned to Iran for drones to gain an advantage in the conflict.
Following the restoration of relations last year, a delegation of Sudanese officials visited Iran to purchase Iranian-made drones after a UN arms trade embargo expired in October.
Sources revealed to Iran International that the delegation aimed to acquire operational knowledge of the drones, which have been utilized in conflicts such as Russia’s war in Ukraine and by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
AU consultations continue
Meanwhile, the African Union recently convened consultations at its headquarters with Sudanese opposition parties and civil society groups, including Taqadum, SPLM-North, the Democratic Unionist Party, Ba’ath Party, and the Popular Congress Party, once led by Islamist figure Hassan al-Turabi.
These consultations, the second in a series, are part of preparations for an Inter-Sudanese Political Dialogue following a potential initial ceasefire agreement to facilitate discussions on a political transition.
Support for the U.S.-led ceasefire effort includes a high-level panel appointed by the AU and Ramtana Lamamra, former Algerian foreign minister and UN Secretary-General’s special envoy, alongside co-hosts Saudi Arabia and Switzerland for the upcoming Geneva talks.
Some observers speculate whether this moment represents a crucial juncture for ceasefire negotiations, citing the forthcoming U.S. presidential election in November, which could alter the leadership dynamics at the U.S. State Department.
The U.S. is currently the sole foreign mediator actively engaging in talks, following a failed attempt by IGAD heads of state earlier in the year that led to Sudan withdrawing from the bloc.
Saudi Arabia, previously a co-mediator, now assumes a lesser role as co-host, while Egypt and Ethiopia have hosted consultations without exerting substantial pressure for a ceasefire.
Tom Perriello, the U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, holds a pivotal role, with his future contingent on the U.S. election outcome. A former Congressman affiliated with the Democratic Party and experienced in African diplomacy, Perriello’s tenure could shift depending on the election result, impacting U.S. engagement in Sudanese affairs.
Unlike previous envoys, Perriello reports within the State Department, not directly to the President, raising questions about his continuity if there is a change in administration. Polling indicates a tight race between candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, potentially influencing the trajectory of U.S. diplomatic efforts in Sudan.
