Sudanese General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan narrowly escaped an alleged assassination attempt Tuesday just a day after his army-controlled government hinted at a willingness to engage in US-backed ceasefire talks in Switzerland.
On Wednesday, in a speech at a military graduation ceremony, al-Burhan rejected US-backed peace talks in Switzerland and demanded the international community recognize his authority over Sudan.
Al-Burhan waited over a week to respond to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s invitation to the Sudan peace summit, to be held in Switzerland’s Geneva on August 14, to reach a lasting solution to end the civil war.
Sudanese warlord once again railroaded the peace talks, just like he did with UN-brokered talks in Switzerland and the Jeddah Summit in Saudi Arabia.
But this time it was in the shadow of an alleged assassination attempt.
The purported attack occurred on Tuesday in Red Sea State, where Burhan was attending a military parade and cadet graduation ceremony in Gebeit.
According to reports, the event was targeted by two suicide drones. Al-Burhan’s military (SAF) immediately put out a detailed press statement saying that five people had been killed and several others injured.
This is a massive deviation from SAF’s usual slower communication methods in situations like this.
Burhan appeared defiant following the attack, addressing supporters with the rallying cry, “one army, one people,” and visiting the injured at Gibeit Hospital.
He also attended the funeral for the victims.
The incident has drawn comparisons to the recent assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump, with Sudanese social media users humorously juxtaposing images of Burhan and Trump.
Trump’s attack led to increased popularity and political gains, a trajectory some speculate Burhan might follow.
Speculation and Patterns
Speculation abounds regarding the attack’s perpetrators. Some suspect regime hardliners opposed to peace talks, others blame the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), while some believe the attack may have been orchestrated by Burhan’s own government.
The RSF, lacking long-range drone capabilities, are unlikely candidates.
But Sudan-Iran rapprochement after 8 years and Tehran’s willingness to offer and send weapons to SAF does put al-Burhan in a position to acquire high-tech Iranian drones.
Furthermore, the RSF would gain little from targeting an unpopular leader like Burhan.
This attack fits a pattern of suspicious drone assaults against SAF-controlled areas, including previous incidents in Atbara, Gedaref, and Kosti, which appear to serve as “false flag” operations aimed at bolstering pro-war factions and undermining ceasefire negotiations.
Political Implications
This alleged assassination attempt could politically benefit Burhan by countering accusations of military incompetence and supporting ongoing crackdowns on perceived opponents.
Such crackdowns have intensified, with thousands arrested across SAF-controlled regions on charges of collaboration with the RSF or anti-war activism.
The timing of the attack is particularly noteworthy as it follows Sudan’s foreign ministry’s request for consultations with the US regarding proposed ceasefire talks.
Despite Burhan’s rejection of negotiations in a speech to cadets, his army-controlled government showed some openness to dialogue, which the RSF has already accepted last week.
US Special Envoy Tom Perriello has been preparing for these talks with support from the Arab League, IGAD, and the UN.
The US State Department has expressed opposition to violence but has yet to comment extensively on the attack.
Lack of Visual Evidence
As of Wednesday, there is no definitive visual evidence of the drone attack.
The available videos show panicked reactions and some smoke, but do not provide clear evidence of the drone, explosion, or casualties.
The unfolding situation remains under close scrutiny as the international community awaits further details.
