Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea are reaching a boiling point, with officials from Ethiopia’s war-scarred Tigray region warning that a full-scale conflict could erupt at any moment. A renewed war between the two nations would not only unravel the 2018 peace deal that earned Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed the Nobel Peace Prize but also threaten to destabilize the Horn of Africa further.
Regional analysts caution that direct clashes between Ethiopia and Eritrea, home to two of Africa’s largest militaries, could spill across borders and exacerbate existing humanitarian crises in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia.
A Fragile Peace at Risk
“At any moment, war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out,” warned General Tsadkan Gebretensae, a senior official in Tigray’s interim administration, in an article published Monday in The Africa Report.
His concerns follow deepening divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), which waged a brutal war against Ethiopia’s federal government from 2020 to 2022. The faction splintered last year, with one group cooperating with Addis Ababa while another has taken a defiant stance—accused of seeking alliances with Eritrea.
On Tuesday, the dissident faction seized the northern Tigrayan town of Adigrat. In response, Getachew Reda, leader of Tigray’s interim administration, appealed to the Ethiopian government for support. “There is clear antagonism between Ethiopia and Eritrea,” Getachew said Monday. “My concern is that the Tigrayan people may once again be caught in a war they do not support.”
Military Buildup and Regional Tensions
While Ethiopia’s federal government has remained silent on the escalating tensions, signs of military preparations are mounting. Eritrea ordered a nationwide military mobilization in February, according to UK-based Human Rights Concern – Eritrea. Meanwhile, Ethiopian troops have been redeployed toward the Eritrean border, according to diplomatic and regional sources.
“The political and security situation in Tigray is dry tinder waiting for a match,” wrote former U.S. and EU envoys Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos in Foreign Policy.
Historical Grievances and Geopolitical Struggles
Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after decades of armed struggle, only for the two neighbors to fight a brutal border war from 1998 to 2000. While the 2018 peace accord ended their formal hostilities, recent disputes—particularly over Ethiopia’s calls for access to the Red Sea—have reignited tensions.
Eritrean officials have viewed Abiy’s repeated statements on Ethiopia’s “right to sea access” as a potential precursor to military action. Eritrea’s growing ties with Egypt and Somalia, formalized in a security pact last October, have only deepened the regional divide.
As diplomatic efforts stall, the risk of renewed warfare looms large, threatening to drag the Horn of Africa into yet another devastating conflict.
