Tensions in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region are once again escalating, raising fears of a regional war.
Despite a fragile peace deal in 2022, internal divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) are deepening instability and could ignite a fresh conflict, potentially involving neighboring Eritrea.
The TPLF, once a dominant force in Ethiopia, is now divided.
A faction within the party has reportedly aligned with Eritrean forces, escalating tensions.
Ibrahim Mulushewa, an expert at the Centre for Integrated Regional Studies, warns that while no side desires full-scale war, the complex web of interests may still lead to conflict.
The root of the crisis lies in the TPLF’s internal power struggle. A leadership divide, marked by a split in the party, has led to accusations that Eritrea is backing one faction.
This has fueled distrust among Tigrayans, particularly regarding the continued presence of Eritrean forces in the region.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s desire for direct access to the Red Sea is causing friction with Eritrea.
“For Ethiopia, gaining sea access is an existential issue,” says Mulushewa, as the country’s push for territorial expansion has further strained relations.
Eritrea, once an ally in the 2020-2022 Tigray war, has voiced concerns over Ethiopia’s military buildup near Tigray and has sought closer ties with regional players like Egypt and Somalia.
Analysts fear that renewed conflict could destabilize the Horn of Africa, with far-reaching consequences for neighboring countries like Sudan and Somalia.
Despite calls for diplomacy, the risk of war remains high.
Peace efforts may falter if internal divisions and external pressures continue to mount, leaving the Horn of Africa on the brink of another devastating conflict.
