Middle East crude oil exports climbed above pre-war levels on several days in late September, even as attacks on commercial vessels intensified around the Strait of Hormuz, shipping data showed on Monday.
Exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and again from September 27 to 29, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day, according to provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler.
That compares with an average of about 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February 2026, before the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.
The seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million barrels per day on October 1. The figure includes shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea, exports from regional terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
Total exports of crude oil, refined products, chemicals and other non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day in the seven days through September 30, Kpler data showed.
Liquefied natural gas shipments leaving the Strait of Hormuz also increased in September, reaching their highest monthly level since February.
The figures do not include vessels that may have passed through the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off.
Before the war began, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled around 125 large commercial vessels a day, including oil tankers, LNG carriers, bulk carriers and container ships. The waterway accounts for roughly 20% of global daily crude oil and LNG supplies.
Tanker attacks intensify
Despite the recovery in shipping volumes, security conditions around the strait have deteriorated.
Shipping intelligence company Marisks said at least seven attacks on tankers had recently been reported in and around the Strait of Hormuz.
The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was reportedly struck by an unidentified projectile while operating in the strait on October 1, causing a fire onboard.
All crew members were reported safe and were later evacuated, Marisks said.
Kpler data showed the Kazimah III had last discharged about 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Oman’s Ras Markaz terminal on September 17. Its owner, Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack per day in either the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden since October 2.
Marisks warned that merchant vessels now face a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable” threat as shipping traffic rises.
The company said available intelligence suggests some recent incidents may not involve individual ships being deliberately selected.
Instead, it said Iranian forces may be firing missiles into a predetermined engagement zone, or “kill box,” where weapons could acquire and lock onto radar signatures from vessels operating inside the area.
That means simply being inside the engagement zone at the wrong time could expose commercial vessels to attack, Marisks said.
