Five months into the U.S.-led war with Iran, Americans are increasingly pessimistic about the conflict’s impact on the Middle East, with half expecting it to make the region less stable over the coming year, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Only 17% of respondents said U.S. military action against Iran was likely to improve regional stability, meaning those anticipating greater instability outnumbered optimists by nearly three to one.
Another 16% believed conditions would remain largely unchanged, while 17% were unsure or did not answer.
The six-day poll concluded on Monday as U.S. President Donald Trump again stepped back from threats of “massive attacks” against Iran, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding a war he had initially suggested would deliver a rapid victory.
Public anxiety also extended to the economic consequences of the conflict. About 58% of Americans said they expected gasoline prices to worsen, compared with just 15% who believed prices would improve.
Fuel prices have climbed as Iran has restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global oil exports.
Political risks for Trump
The findings point to growing political risks for Trump and the Republican Party ahead of November’s midterm elections, when the party will seek to protect its narrow majorities in Congress.
Trump returned to office in January 2025 after campaigning against prolonged overseas conflicts and pledging to avoid what he described as unnecessary wars.
While Republican voters continue to strongly support Trump, they remain divided over the likely outcome of the Iran conflict.
Around 80% of Republicans approve of Trump’s overall performance, and 66% support his handling of Iran. However, only 41% believe the war will make the Middle East more stable during the next year.
The fighting has triggered Iranian missile and drone attacks against neighboring countries and commercial shipping. It also contributed to renewed clashes in Lebanon, although violence there has eased following a U.S.-brokered truce.
Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have also threatened Saudi-linked shipping passing through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea.
David Schenker, who served as the State Department’s top Middle East official during Trump’s first term, said the economic consequences of the war could continue even if the fighting ended soon.
However, he argued that prolonged regional instability was not inevitable, saying U.S. and Israeli strikes had substantially weakened Iran’s armed forces and its network of allied groups across the region.
Schenker, now a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the scale of the damage to Iran’s military capabilities may not yet be fully understood by the American public.
The war, launched by the United States and Israel in late February, has cost U.S. taxpayers at least $37.5 billion. It has also killed 18 American service members and thousands of Iranians.
Support for war remains low
Only 35% of Americans said they approved of the war, according to the poll.
When registered voters were asked which political party had a better approach to managing war and terrorism, Democrats narrowly led Republicans by 37% to 36%.
It was the first Democratic lead on the issue since Reuters/Ipsos began asking the question in December 2024. At that time, Republicans held an advantage of 39% to 28%.
The poll also found that voters now view Democrats as more capable of managing the economy, marking the party’s first advantage on that question in roughly a decade.
Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, said the Iran war had been unpopular from the beginning and that public support had continued to decline.
He said Trump faced a difficult balance between pursuing sweeping military goals — including eliminating Iran’s missile capabilities and preventing it from obtaining a nuclear weapon — and limiting U.S. casualties and domestic political damage.
Logan argued that the absence of a clear and consistent strategy was creating additional problems for the administration.
Concerns over Ukraine, China and Greenland
Americans also expressed concern that existing conflicts could escalate and that new wars could emerge elsewhere.
Around 58% said they were worried that Russia’s war in Ukraine could worsen over the next several years.
Another 55% were concerned that China could enter into a military conflict with Taiwan, while 48% feared a war could break out between Russia and another European country.
Some 37% said they were concerned that the United States could go to war over Greenland.
The Reuters/Ipsos survey was conducted online among 4,505 adults across the United States and had a margin of error of approximately two percentage points.
